author: william   20 July 2020Print page

Why is it not worth betting on the top football leagues?

Our ultimate goal is to make everyone who’s reading our guides better. We always try to share the knowledge that we have gathered over the years. Today, we would like to discuss some of the most common mistakes inexperienced punter make.

betting guide
«I bet on the top football leagues because I know them»Beat a bookie to winEveryone is betting on the Champions LeagueBeing stubborn does not pay off
«I bet on the top football leagues because I know them»
Football betting is extremely popular all over the world. That is why top online bookmakers are constantly trying to secure the biggest market share by offering markets for more exotic and lower leagues and divisions. Nevertheless, the majority of punters are focusing more on the most popular ones anyway.

One study says that around 90% of regular bettors cannot imagine placing a bet without at least one Premier League hit match, a couple of La Liga matches or a Champions League matchup. This data can show us an even bigger picture if you add to it another more known statistics that only 5% of punters have positive results in the long run.

So what? Can we get something out it? Both yes and no! On the one hand, those who are against betting on the match results will tell that taking a look at those two stats will only prove you once again that nothing is random in this world and that both statistics are directly related.

On the other hand, nobody can promise or guarantee you that achieving a positive yield by betting only on Serie A or Bundesliga is impossible. Why is that? It is mainly because it is possible, however, quite difficult.
Beat a bookie to win
Let’s start with how do bookmaking companies actually work, and how do they set the odds that you have to beat in the first place?

In the case of the most popular leagues and matches, the odds are usually being set way in advance, sometimes even two weeks before the actual event. These betting companies purposely hire analysts, who know more about betting than anyone else in the whole world. Let’s assume that during the oddsmaking process they would lean more towards one or the other side. Would the bookmaker lose much because of that?

Absolutely not, because the market, which you are a part of will perfectly verify it minutes after the market opening. This will even up the probability, completely eliminating value. The only exception is when you know something that the remaining 99% of the market users do not have an idea about.

The situation looks quite different when it comes to the lower leagues and divisions (let’s use the Czech Youth Leauge as the example). Oddsmakers are usually opening their markets a couple of hours before the start of such events. What is more, it is usually just one person who is responsible for these less popular markets at once, which makes it impossible for him/her to be an expert. So what’s next? Most of the time, they set them automatically and use the exact same odds every week and just wait until they get verified by the market. A great example would be once again the aforementioned Czech Youth League. How many times have we already witnessed a 3.75 goal line being set for the entire playing week? The funny part is that some of these lines immediately jump to 5.25 just after the kickoff, making a huge difference. You will never see something like this happening in the Premier League, trust us!
Everyone is betting on the Champions League
The majority of punters cannot imagine a different Wednesday evening scenario, other than placing a wager on the Manchester City - Real Madrid Champions League Quarter Final matchup, along with relaxing on a comfortable couch with a bottle of cold beer at home.

In the meanwhile, a more or less similar situation, depending on the status and popularity of the particular event, is waiting for millions of punters worldwide. Don’t get us wrong, we are not saying that you will not be able to make it but, thinking logically, how are you going to beat the oddsmakers, who are the best players on the market, in the first place, and then find value on the market that has been verified by millions of tipsters worldwide?! Well, do you really think that 99% of players are wrong while you are right?

Of course, it does not mean that you will not land a single or even a couple of them in the row! However, that is not a proof that you will be able to constantly have positive results in the long run, which means being better than 99% of the market day after day, week after week. It is not impossible, however, good luck with that...
Being stubborn does not pay off
Why not take a shortcut? Why not just stick to some lower division league and become an expert there? In that case, your assessment can be way more accurate than the oddsmakers’ one, which won’t happen in case of the Premier League, where hundreds of millions of euros are on the line!

Let’s use the already-mentioned Czech Youth League as an example. Not too many punters are interested in it, therefore, if you would stick to it for a while, you will soon enough become an expert, which will help you find value in every single match.

Does this guarantee you success? Absolutely not!!! However, in the field where the most successful punters have a yield of around 5-10%, it is crucial to fight for every single piece of your budget! What do you think about this? In what market it is easier to find value? In the Premier League, where millions of punter are playing or in the Czech Youth one, where there is only a small group of enthusiast playing beside you?!

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