Guessing the result of the match
The most important decision a bettor must make before putting his money on a particular team’s game is to predict the outcome of that match. It is especially the case in football when most bets are connected to the number of goals and prediction of the half-time or final score of the game. That is why, it is crucial for bettors to get as many information on both teams as they can, for example, the number of goals in their past games or their direct matches from the last few seasons. Very often though, players want to know the overall statistics of the most frequent results not only for a particular team or league, but of the entire football history. They want to increase their mathematical chances of predicting a good result with such statistics and they often do, because in spite of the popular belief that football is very exciting, unpredictable game, people are shocked when they discover the most frequent scores in this discipline of sport.
The most frequent match result in football
Is a 1-1 draw. Furthermore, a goalless 0-0 draw is proved to be the most frequent half time result. Thus, the most important scores in football history are draws. At first it does not make sense, after all, every football fan will say that football is very exciting and there are many goals in each game. The statistics prove differently and in this article we will not only provide you with the results of the study for the most frequent results both at the half time and at the end of the game in history of football but also explain the reasons that contributed to such statistics.
The most obvious explanation for such statistics (note that the study is primarily concerned with the top European leagues) can be the changing football level of the teams. Currently, the majority of the teams have similar finances, coaching staff, stadiums, and potential of their players. With the advancements in technology and cultural and social changes, the focus in modern football is on winning trophies and making money. People expect a spectacle that only few teams in the world can offer, with the rest struggling for points and goals. That is why the most popular outcomes in football matches include only few or no goals, because apart from the few exceptions such as Real Madrid or Barcelona, most teams do not have such goal-scoring and thus marketing potential.
The most frequent half-time match result
The reason why a goalless draw is the most frequent match score after the first half of the match is probably the fear of making a mistake. Contemporary football teams are afraid to play open offensive football from the beginning of the game because they are afraid they will do a mistake that will result in losing a goal, and in consequence, a match. These days, one goal can be very decisive and is often enough to win, but also to lose a game. In most such cases, the plan for the team is to be careful in the first half and try not to lose a goal, and then attempt to score and win the game in the second half. This could be supported by another statistics - the time of the match when most goals are scored - and that is between 75 minute up to the very end of the match. That is why it is advisable to watch football matches till the final whistle of the referee, because, as many examples show (including Sergio Ramos header in 93 minute for 1:1 of Champions League Final between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid), scores very often change in the last moments of the match.
Explanation of the decreasing number of goals
Because of this fear of making a mistake and losing, most teams are becoming less offensive and focus on their tactics. This could be the reason for the second most frequent outcome in football a simple 1:0 win. One more time we do not see many goals, despite the decisive score in the game. This result could be the ultimate plan for most teams, because as it was mentioned before, they want to win the match at all cost, they care less about the goals, their focus are the points they could get for a win and trophies they could lift. Another explanation for such statistics could be that there are fewer goal-scoring opportunities in the modern football, especially in the tactically advanced top European leagues. We can observe lot of goals in few matches between the top teams and the ones from the lower divisions, for example in the national cup games. A lot of goals is also scored in the obscure leagues where the tactical level and skills of players are rather poor, and the focus is mostly put on physicality and open-offensive style of playing. In the top divisions it is more about point and wins than goals. A great example of this theory is the team of Atletico Madrid, which have won almost all important trophies and was two times very close to win the UEFA Champions League, while not scoring many goals and focusing on tactics and defence.
It was very different when football was first introduced and in its first few years. Teams were very offensive-minded, often playing with 4 or more strikers, and scored many goals. Such results as 7:3 in a Champions League final match between Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt were very common in the period between 1900’s and 1960’s. Slowly, new styles and strategies were introduced along with the rising tactical and technical skills of the players which influenced the number of scored goals. Modern teams usually play with a single striker and 4 or 5 midfielders, and the focus is on the win not on the style.
Last but not least, the final argument explaining the statistics of the most frequent results in football which are draws and wins with only one-goal margin can be the rules and restrictions introduced in football over the last few decades. Rules such as the offside rule or the introduction of the substitutions were essential in evening the chances for teams. Injuries and tired players were not a big problem anymore and teams became less prone to a loss of a goal.
The most frequent results in top European leagues
In this section we will present two tables with statistics for the most frequent outcomes in the top five European divisions including: La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League, Ligue 1 and Serie A. The first table presents the most popular final scores and the second one is concerned with the most frequent half-time results.
The most frequent match results in football are:
The most frequent half-time match results in football are:
Analysis of the results of the study
Based on these statistics we could determine that a draw is a highly possible outcome for the half time and final result of a match. Furthermore, we have studied approximately ten thousand odds and we came up with an average odds for draw results. The bookmaker companies are offering an average 56/25(3.24) odds for a draw (711/100(8.11) odds for a 0-0 and 25/4(7.25) for a 1-1). This shows that betting an a decisive result carries more risk but at the same time is often very profitable. Draws are very unpopular option for both bookmakers and the bettors (because of their high probability and because they are uninteresting for bettors who are mostly football fans and want a win for their team). The latter want to win big money and bet for a win of one of the teams. A good thing to do is to bet live when there is a half-time break. As it is shown by the study, the results often change during the second part of the match. If there is a draw at the end of the first half, there is high probability that it could still go either way, while if the teams evened the score in the second half the match it is very possible it would end that way. Also worth noticing is the fact that the home ground advantage is statistically proved to be true and home teams playing with the support of their own crowd on their stadium are more likely to score and win than their opponents who along with the referee are pressured by thousands of fans. The only exception can be observed when the away team scores at least one goal before the end of he first half. If that is the case they have good chances for a win.
To sum up, if someone wants to be a successful bettor he needs to be aware of such statistics as it could increase his chances of correct prediction of the score of the match. Nevertheless, there is no such thing as a certain prediction, because as we all know, despite the statistics proving differently, football is a beautiful, unpredictable game.