author: andriev   10 April 2020Print page

Long-term betting and its bias

Long-term or outrights betting is one of the most popular betting markets out there. What is it all about? When and where to look for value? How to make the right prediction and what bias you have to deal with while betting on the outright markets? Answers to these and many other questions in our today’s betting guide.

Long-term betting and its bias
What is outright?When to look for value?Can you secure your outright?Predictions and bias that comes along
What is outright?
Outrights are bets placed on the outcome of the whole event (league, tournament, competition). It is a long-term bet and is different from regular singles which are placed on a particular game or an outcome.

Punters are able to wager on the outright markets right after the market opening and sometimes even until the event is taking place.
When to look for value?
Long-term betting has its pros and cons. First of all, and most importantly, it locks in value. Let’s say the Champions League markets opened and Manchester City seems to be underpriced. Analysing the data, there might be lots of value, and therefore, it would be smart to lock it in while you still can. A timely response is a key here, as the odds will get adjusted on a match-to-match basis.

Well, despite giving you such a great opportunity to secure value, outrights do not always offer it. Unfortunately, it is quite common that odds for single events are much more attractive than for the outrights. The best example would be a Tiger Woods case. The outright market was opened on Woods winning all the golf majors at the odds of 101.00 (100/1). He received such odds despite being priced at 11.00 (10/1) to win one of the upcoming majors. Keeping in mind these number, and assuming similar prices for the subsequent events, the total odds of Tiger Woods winning those would amount at around 1300.00 (1299/1). Quite a difference, huh?

This might not be the best example, but it is easier if you apply it to more popular markets. This brings up another issue. Some bettors would find it more efficient and effective to use their bankroll betting on separate season events (like Premier League matches), than using it for an outright bet. This is called an opportunity cost. How much do you give up by opting to outrights?
Can you secure your outright?
Securing the outright bet is usually possible. It is easy to hedge your outright in tournaments that do not have many competitors or that offer a “not to win” option. Unfortunately, that is not always the case.

It becomes extremely difficult to secure your outright bet when there are two or more favourites to win the event. Sometimes the odds are too short, which limits your ability to hedge it unless betting big amounts. We suggest thinking about exiting the market, but that also carries some risks. Anyways it will hit your bankroll whether that would be a high betting margin on the cashout, commission or any other sort of fee. Sometimes it is just better to let your long-term bet run for a bit more.
Predictions and bias that comes along
Betting outrights does not only involve a timely placement but thinking a couple of steps ahead. Bettors have to look not just for value but how much of it does the particular bet has on the long-run.

With this scenario comes a so-called favourite-longshot bias, explained as the favourites’ odds provide a better betting option than the underdogs’ ones, however having the same negative result possibility. This means that bettors tend to lean towards a low probability, high payout bets (longshots). Such behaviour is rather irrational and creates an overbetting trend, which in return results in odds shortening.

While being called irrational, such moves help some punters to find value. On the other side, constant outrights betting ties up your bankroll and leads to market lag, as less money is being inputted in it over time. A good example of such a situation would be a 2017 PSG Champions League betting odds. They were listed on the outrights market at the prices of 21.00 (20/1). In the meanwhile, they had another opened market about them signing Neymar and Mbappe. As the second market attracted more money, more resources were tied up there, leaving bettors idle. As a result, the initial Champions League odds received a reaction from the market only after some time, cutting PSG’s odds to 11.00 (10/1) by the end of summer.

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