With every penalty card booking, the risk of another one is getting higher
Before you start betting on this type of bookmaker bet, you must realise that the whole mechanism behind penalty cards is similar to the process of making a snowball. Often one aggressive tackle in a boring match can trigger a rough playing style and many penalty cards will be shown. A rough tackle in a first moments of the game could provoke similar reaction, even to the teams not considered as aggressive ones. We all remember a 2006 World Cup game in Germany, when national teams of Portugal (with Figo, Cristiano Ronaldo and Deco) and Netherlands (with Robben, Sneijder, Van der Vaart and Van Persie) were expected to put a stunning performance in their clash, but instead, because of the harsh tackle and a yellow card in consequence for Marc Van Bommel in the second minute of the game, all we saw was a brutal game that did not looked like a football match. The Russian referee, Valentin Ivanov showed a shocking number of 16 yellow and 4 red cards and the game from then on was remembered as the ‘Battle for the Nuremberg’.
It also works similarly the other way around. Numerous times we have witnessed games which sparked a lot of emotions for fans weeks before the first whistle of the match, only to end up as really boring, with players fearing any contact with each other.
Example? In a recent match between Croatia and a new official member of the FIFA family, Kosovo, everyone expected an ugly match with flying drones, political altercations and a harsh style of playing. Instead, the Croatians quickly scored 3 goals before the break (they won 6:0 overall) and there was no need for such extremes anymore. The game looked more like a friendly. The only time the referee showed a yellow card was at the beginning of the match when the score was still open.
Yellow card for team X is a much higher risk for a yellow booking for team Y
We all well know that in betting on the number of shown penalty cards in a game, the referee is a key factor. Just and strict referee can moderate the player’s moods and prevent any brutal play. From the other hand, a lenient, passive one, will encourage the players to be more bold and aggressive and negative emotions will start to accumulate on the field. Before making a bet on cards, it is advisable to search for any info concerned with the referee - his style, percentage of shown cards per a game or the number of red cards he has lately given.
The football analysts claim that every card booking for the player of team X increases the chances for the same thing to happen to one of the players from team Y. Why it is like that? To put it simply, the referee starts feeling biased when he shows a few penalty cards for one of the teams, and instinctively want to ‘even the chances’ for this team by showing more cards to the other team. Despite how ridiculous it sounds, it is often the case.
Red card shown when it is a draw is a huge chance for the team with a player advantage to score and win the match
Football statisticians calculated that the goal-scoring ability of a team who is playing with at least one more player than the other team increases up to 65%. Thus, the theory that we mentioned at the beginning, that every committed foul raises the possibility for a penalty card booking and in consequence player expulsion, lost goal and potential loss proves to be real.
What about the score of a game when one of the players is expelled by the referee while there is a draw? The statistics show that only 5% of teams with at least one man down were able to score a goal and win the match, 25% of such games ended with a draw and 70% of the cases seen the weaker team loosing the goal and a match. You still do not believe that a single foul or penalty card matters?
Does the red card influences the home team and the guests the same way?
In football, the home team have the advantage in almost every aspect, same goes for the yellow cards. It is thought that the pressure from the home team supporters often makes the referee to be more favourable for the team playing on its home ground. But the statistics published by the football analysts shocked even us. In the studied UEFA Champions League campaign, the referees showed 65% of all penalty cards to the away team players while giving only 35% of bookings to the home team. The difference is huge.
It was also proven that the red card for the away team player increases the chances for a goal for the home team up to 70%, while in the reversed situation, the chances for the away team playing with more players raises ‘only’ up to 60%. It may be like that because of the ambition and wounded pride of the home team who do not want to disappoint its supporters.
Currently, the best offer for penalty card betting are offered by: Unibet, RedBet, Sky Bet, Betsafe.