In order to master the football prediction, we would need to learn a bit of mathematics, to be more precise, the Poisson Distribution. It is a mathematical concept that helps to outline the possible outcomes converting the historical mean data. To make it less complicated, let’s use a simple example, assume that team A scores 1.7 goals per match. By putting this data into the distribution formula we will get the following results:

• Team A scores 0 goals 18.3% of the time
• Team A scores 1 goal 31% of the time
• Team A scores 2 goals 26.4% of the time
• Team A scores 3 goals 15% of the time

How does it work? Let’s find out.

This data plays a vital role in our calculations. If our data range would be too long the results won’t satisfying, and if too short, it could happen that some data would be beyond our designated rage. You can get this data from the seasonal statistics of any football league.

This is very easy to do. You just have to divide the total amount of goals by the number of games played.

For the example purposes, let’s use the 2015/2016 English Premier League data. By putting all the necessary information into the simple formula, we would get:

Attack Strength is the ration between the league’s and the team’s averages.

Once again, the Defence Strength is the ratio between the league’s and the team’s averages.

Step 1 - You have to take the total home goals scored by a team and divide it by the total number of home games.

Step 2 - Divide the answer you get by the league’s average home goals divided by the total home games.

Agenda:

Step 3 - You have to take the total goals conceded by a team while away and divide it by the total number of away games.

Step 4 - Divide the answer you get by the league’s average goals conceded while away divided by the total away games.

Agenda:

Step 5 - Now all you left to do is to calculate the possible number of goals. To do so, just multiply the home team’s Attack Strength by the away team’s Defense Strength and by the league’s average number of home goals.

Agenda:

Just input the goal occurrences and team’s scoring probability and you all get the chances of each possible case. Let’s show you an example.

Assume that Team A’s scoring probability is 1.623 and Team B’s - 0.824. Looking at the matchup between two, we are interested in 0-5 goals for each one. Using the aforementioned tools, we are going to get the following results.

Of course, by doing so we are exposing ourselves to the infinite amount of options but how often have you seen a football match that finished at 6-6 or 10-10? We bet you won’t even be able to come up with one right now. The chances of such scores happening are close to zero, therefore we can easily neglect them.

In order to the chance of the draw happening between Team A and Team B, we need to calculate each draw scoreline chances separate and add them all together. By using the data from the table above, we would get the following result, 0.2472 or 24.72%.

Pro tip: convert this into odds and compare them to the ones your bookmaker has to offer. In our case, the draw odds in such a matchup would be 4.05 (61/20). Use this advice, to find value.

The formula is not designed for all of that. Though, it finds its use in lower leagues, where it is easier to gain an edge over a sportsbook. You will struggle to beat the bookie by using just this distribution for major leagues as bookmakers have more advanced tools and resources at their disposal.

Remember, the odds you find via this method also do not include the betting margin, which has a huge impact on finding value. We suggest using this technique as a great add-on to your assessment and analysis arsenal. Happy betting!