Suppose you are keen to believe in an idea of being more likely to land another wager after successfully landing a couple of in a row. In that case, you should start worrying about your long-term profit right now. A Hot Hand is nothing else but the cognitive bias that can negatively affect your abilities to access risk properly & precisely. After winning a couple of consecutive wagers, our brain automatically starts rewarding itself with dopamine, which subsequently creates a pattern of winning bets, making you falsely believe that you are more likely to win again. Inexperienced punters usually fall for it and place their next wagers without a proper assessment. This is, obviously, cannot lead to anything good. The unreasonable & uncontrolled overexaggeration of your own winning chances is what causes long-term problems.
Another side of the issue comes from mainstream media and its influencers that purposely highlight certain statistics to create a strong misbelieve. However, it can be used in your favour. Assume the majority of the market is fascinated by the incredible winning run of a team or a player. As a result, this will likely steer the vast volume of bettors towards either overestimating or underestimating the team’s actual winning chances. Whenever a large portion of the market bets a certain way altogether, this will force the bookmaker and oddsmakers to shift their odds & adjust their prices to limit their liabilities. Such a situation will likely open numerous value finding
opportunities. Additionally, do not forget that teams & players tend to adjust their strategies if they become aware of them being «hot-handed». Moreover, their opponents should be even more aware of an upcoming tough matchup and aim to apply more pressure on their key players to prevent them from repeating their previous results.
One more thing worth mentioning is that it is crucial for betting success to be able to identify the overperformance and underperformance of each competing side. If your own betting approach offers extra information about the particular sporting event, which can go along or against the winning run situation, make sure you factor that into your calculations to have a better idea of the market state and its prices. Make sure to find as much data about the events you are betting on as possible to increase your winning chances and benefit even more from the information bookmakers & the rest of the market missed out on. However, even the most perfect risk assessment does not guarantee a 100% success rate. Anything is possible in the world of sports, plus there are simply too many variables. With that being said, make sure you have enough patience to be able to tell if your approach is a profitable one or not.
Returning to the Hot Hand Fallacy, there is actually a simple solution to prevent yourself from falling for these types of bias, which is also tightly connected with everything we have already said above. There is one and only one way to protect yourself from such cognitive fallacies as hot hand. You have to start teaching yourself to be more focused & self-disciplined. Remember, you are the only thing that can prevent you from falling for these biases or not. Keep trying to develop good betting habits by continuously repeating the same risk assessment and market evaluation procedures to estimate the real chances of the event occurring and comparing them what the market and top online bookmakers
have to offer. Only such an approach will ensure successful long-term betting.