Have you heard about the Green Lumber Fallacy? Well, if you consider yourself a punter, you should have already done it because it is one of the most common mistakes sports betting punters commit. The term «Green Lumber Fallacy» used initially by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book «Antifragile». The term was quickly picked up by betting experts & analysts and found its wide implementation in sports betting.
The actual popularity the theory gained after Michael Lewis’ book «Moneyball», where the author explained the effectiveness & benefit of focusing on a few fundamental core metrics rather than on the terabytes of insider & expert data, which by its nature is based on the flawed subjective analysis. The topic even found broad support among English Premier League managers who were challenging the more orthodox style of coaching that, in reality, could have been easily biased, especially by the so-called confirmation bias
The whole idea could be explained using quite a straightforward example. It is quite obvious that betting on sports ideally requires both the practical knowledge of the market & the risk understanding skills. While it is only an ideal skillset for a sports punter, the majority of the community keeps wrongly believing that first-hand knowledge can automatically make you a good tipper. This trend is clearly displayed by more & more former sports personalities (especially ex-Premier League stars or NBA legends) finding their way towards online bookmakers & major betting blogs.
If you are looking to be successful in sports betting, you must remember one of its golden rules - risk understanding & its proper assessment in terms of finding value are the most vital skills when it comes to engaging in activities directly related to probability & risk. However, the availability and the proper use of extra data sources, like inside information or previous personal experience, have never been a disadvantage but rather a crucial edge over the online bookmaker.
Once again, taking into consideration first-hand information from a credible source is always preferred, but any knowledge about a certain sports or sporting event has nothing in common with betting on them. Try to stay away from being fooled by the mainstream media that portrait the idea of former sports celebrities automatically being great at betting on the same sports they used to play. While it is possible to develop risk assessment skills & acquire the necessary knowledge about the role of probabilities in sports betting, the intimate knowledge about the sports itself is not necessarily a sign of good betting skills.
Thus, please, be aware of such a fallacy, which can easily lead you to make biased picks, which, as a result, can hurt your own bankroll
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