Sportsbook guide, interesting bonuses.
Kelly criterion is one of the best but also the most difficult bookmaker system. It’s better not to use this strategy for beginner players.
The best is to represent this system by an example:
Suppose that Arsenal, playing in an away match, has not had any luck recently, moreover it lost two key players due to injuries. In the meantime the Wigan team, playing at home, lost 3 last matches with a modest result 1:0. The bookmakers have set the odds at the level 1X – 2.37, and 1.53 for Arsenal’s win. It is hard to agree with such decision taking into account all the subtlety. We think that chances for 1X are at 60%, what gives us a mathematical advantage (valuebet).
Suppose we have a 10000 pounds budget, percentage chances of 1X are at 60%.
Bet = [C x (p x o – 1)]/o – 1
C – capital
p – probability that the player guesses the outcome (in percent)
o – odds
x – multiplier
Bet = [10000 x (60%x2.37 - 1)]/2.37 – 1
Bet = [10000 x (1.422 - 1)]/1.37
Bet = [10000 x 0.422]/1.37
Bet = 3080 pounds
3080 pounds (our bet) x 2.37 = 7300 – 3080 = 4220 pounds.
In this strategy we think that you should play only with high odds. Odds at the level 1.90 will most probably not be appropriate. Professional players, using this system for a long time, largely praise it.