author: andriev   3 December 2019Print page

How hot-hand fallacy works in football betting

hot hand fallacy guideAs you might know, we have already outlined the phenomenon of the "hot hand" in one of our sports betting guides. Generally, this fallacy is related to basketball. However, this concept is nothing new to sports betting and finds its application in many different sports. How can we apply it to football? Let's find out together.
We are not going to get too much into the basics of the hot-hand, but rather more into market efficiency.

It is really hard to crack the betting code, especially for the top European football leagues. Such leagues like Spanish La Liga or English Premier League are precisely verified by the market and oddsmakers. There is just too much information out there regarding these leagues' fixture, which allows the odds to reflect the actual probability of results. Such a scenario creates a situation where bettors cannot really be profitable due to the environment rules.

Efficient market hypothesis


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